Nuclear Iran or Nuke Iran?

I've been thinking a lot today about those two scenarios and trying to imagine which one is worse.

There has been an increase in discussion over the last week regarding Israel's next move. It is generally accepted that taking out Hamas completely leaves them with a longer term commitment in Gaza. Anything less than this however might be exploited as a show of weakness and may embolden the Islamists.

One theory I read (it was late last night and I didn't keep the link) which interested me was that Israel might just be crippling Hamas in order to launch an attack on Iran's nuclear installations to prevent, or at least delay, their nuclear weapons programme.

I would agree that having a full strength Hamas and then launching an attack against Iran would leave them exposed to a Hamas reprisal. Even though I don't think Hamas have the arsenal or ability to inflict major carnage on Israel, by not having that distraction would be a benefit for concentrating on any Iran operation.

The recent press reports about Israel approaching Bush for support for their planned use of bunker busting bombs on Iran made me a little curious to start with. The request was secret, but insider sources leaked the information. Looking back I this could be seen as a direct attempt to further villify Israel's actions in Gaza by the outgoing/incoming administration or it was an open threat to Ahmadinejad of what to expect if it doesn't play ball.

I was also reading that the deadline to be able to stop Iran developing nuclear weapons is fast approaching. If this is true, everyone will be aware of it, nobody more so than Israel. As Ahmadinejad has already vowed to wipe Israel off the map, a nuclear weapon could be a more convenient method of doing this than small scale intifadas from Hamas/Hezbollah. Israel have every right to be afraid.

With this in mind, twinned with the incoming Obama administration who have (publicly anyway) not being overly supportive to the Israeli cause, if they were going to take such action, now would be the time. It would certainly force Obama's hand in having to deal with it now rather than when he's ready which is unlikely to be the first few years of his term.

But of course, Israel attacking Iran would have huge consequences - the media alone would attempt to tear them apart. The protests would follow but I imagine they would be on a bigger scale and more likely involve greater amounts of violence/shows of vitriloic hatred towards Jews/Israel.

And then the UN would get involved but as they've shown recently they are less than useless.

What happens after that would be anyones guess and I'm going to devote more time to that later but in short, Israel might just be sacrificing any media/public support they have left (but not from those who can see the bigger picture naturally) that may endanger their own existence.

Should Israel, or anyone for that matter, not taken any action and Iran do manage to produce nuclear weapons then it's not only Israel that would be endangered, but the more secular countries in the Middle East - not to mention the rest of the world that would then be held to ransom.

It would also mean that an Islamist country has the ultimate WMD and the power associated with such a possession wouldn't just be enjoyed by Iran, but by Islamist states/groups the world over. This my friends, would be very, very bad news.

Iran's shadow in Gaza

A brilliant piece by Walid Phares at Counterterrorism blog.

A key point that sums up the failure of the peace process is made succintly;

"By 2005 Israel withdrew from the Gaza strip and the Palestinian Authority was closer to statehood than ever. But Hamas, which won the Palestinian legislative elections in January 2006 thanks to massive Iranian support and its armed omnipresence, refused to follow the course of the Camp David process. According to its ideologues and leaders, and unlike Arafat and Abbas, the radical group “cannot” recognize the existence of the state of Israel"

This says it all really. Isreal basically handed the PA a golden opportunity for them to achieve a Palestinian state internationally recognised but they chose instead to use the territory as a more convenient launch pad for sending indiscriminate missiles into Isreal in line with their Iranian dictated objectives.

So whilst they maintain this goal there is no point negotiating with them as there is no common ground. At the same time they must be shown that their actions have consequences, this is exactly what the IDF are showing them right now. It's simple.

Iran's involvement is a different matter/discussion altogether and is way more frightening.

As Walid says, "Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, most of the Gulf States are nervous about Iran’s influence in Gaza". And rightly so. If Hamas aren't dealt a swift blow in the current engagement they will be emboldened and that can only mean a further escalation in violence towards Israel. An Israel subdued by international pressure to accept the incoming violence from Gaza and an emboldened Hamas backed by Iran is a deadly scenario. If we allow this to happen we are sealing Israels fate whilst rubber stamping Islamist aggression against us all.

What the world is conveniently forgetting however is the one weapon that Israel has that Iran doesn't (yet). Cutting Israel adrift citing moral superiority may leave Israel with no choice but in a dying bid for existence to launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike against Iran. If Iran disappears, so do Hamas. An extreme option but if it's a choice between fight or die, you've already seen which option is favoured.